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The essentials at a glance
The September jobs report showed weaker hiring, a higher unemployment rate and slower wage growth, reshaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
The September jobs report showed weaker hiring, a higher unemployment rate and slower wage growth, reshaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
📝 Key Takeaways
- September Jobs Report Weakens: The September jobs report delivered a clear sign of a softer labor market: U.S. employers added 29,000 nonfarm jobs, well below the 84,000 economists had expected.
- Employment Report Slows Wage Growth: Pay growth also cooled.
- Labor-Market Report and the Fed: Financial markets interpreted the weak hiring figures as reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its October meeting.
✅ Fact-Check Snapshot
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September.
- Market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hold at the Oct. 27-28 meeting reached 82.8%.
September Jobs Report Weakens
The September jobs report delivered a clear sign of a softer labor market: U.S. employers added 29,000 nonfarm jobs, well below the 84,000 economists had expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Earlier figures also became less favorable. August’s job gain was revised to 133,000, while July was revised to show a loss of 10,000 jobs. Together, the revisions reduced previously reported employment gains by 60,000. For households considering a mortgage, a weaker labor market can make income security a more immediate concern than a small change in monthly borrowing costs.
Employment Report Slows Wage Growth
Pay growth also cooled. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September, leaving the 12-month increase at 3%, the lowest annual pace since May 2021. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.6 hours.
Slower wage gains can affect how quickly prospective buyers build savings and how much monthly payment they can comfortably absorb. That effect is uneven, however: the report said job gains were concentrated in health care, construction and manufacturing, while several other industries lost positions.
Labor-Market Report and the Fed
Financial markets interpreted the weak hiring figures as reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its October meeting. Market-implied odds of a steady policy rate at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting rose to 82.8%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
That is a market expectation, not a decision. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, leaving officials to weigh slower employment against continuing price pressures. Mortgage rates can respond to Treasury yields and expectations for monetary policy, but the jobs data alone does not determine where home-loan rates will go.
