Key Takeaway 🔎
- Closed and pending sales fell in July, creating possible negotiating opportunities for qualified buyers, but lower listing activity and major regional differences keep the market from becoming uniformly buyer-friendly.
Redfin’s July 2026 report shows a broad slowdown in transactions alongside near-record prices. Most monthly figures are seasonally adjusted; median sale price and mortgage-rate data are not. The report covers national and 50-metro data and should not be treated as a forecast for every local market.
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High costs pushed more buyers to the sidelines
U.S. home sales fell sharply in July as elevated mortgage rates, record-level prices and economic uncertainty made buyers more cautious. Closed sales declined 4.1% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis, reaching their lowest level in nearly two years. Pending sales, a more immediate measure of demand, fell 2.5% to their lowest level since December.
Affordability remained the central constraint. The median home-sale price increased 3.2% from a year earlier to $407,730, the highest July reading on record. At the same time, the average 30-year mortgage rate for the month increased to 6.54%, its highest monthly average in one year.
Economic concerns added another layer of hesitation. Redfin noted uncertainty about employment, inflation and the broader economy, and 14% of pending agreements were canceled in July. That was the highest cancellation share since 2023 and suggests that some buyers reassessed financing, affordability or property-specific risk after entering contract.
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Supply also moved lower
The slowdown was not limited to buyers. New listings slipped 0.1% from June and reached their lowest level since October 2024. Active listings declined 0.3%. Some owners remain reluctant to sell because moving would mean replacing a much lower existing mortgage rate, while others are waiting for stronger demand.
This matters because weaker sales do not automatically create a large inventory surplus. A buyer may face less competition for a particular property, but the number of fresh choices can also be limited. Local inventory, days on market and seller motivation are more useful than the national headline alone.
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The slowdown is uneven across metros
Texas and Seattle contributed heavily to the national decline. Closed sales fell 12.6% year over year in San Antonio, 10% in Dallas and 9.9% in Fort Worth. Seattle’s closed sales declined 9.1%, while its pending sales fell 15.6%. Houston and Phoenix also recorded steep pending-sales declines of 14.3% and 13.3%, respectively.
Several markets moved in the opposite direction. Closed sales rose 17.1% in West Palm Beach, 8.5% in San Francisco and 7% in Milwaukee. Redfin linked strength in South Florida and the Bay Area partly to affluent buyers, while Milwaukee’s typical sale price of about $383,805 remained below the national median and its inventory increased.
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Where buyers may have leverage
For buyers who can qualify and are comfortable with the monthly payment, slower demand can open room to negotiate with motivated sellers. In July, 59.2% of homes sold below their original list price, and the average sale-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.5%. Those national figures do not guarantee a discount on every home, but they support a closer look at stale listings, prior price cuts and properties that returned to market.
Negotiation does not have to focus only on price. Depending on the property and local competition, buyers can ask about seller-paid closing costs, repair credits, inspection terms, closing flexibility or a temporary rate buydown. Any concession should be evaluated alongside appraisal risk, cash needed at closing and the long-term cost of the loan.
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The U.S. home sales decline gives some qualified buyers more time and potential leverage, but the advantage is property-specific and market-specific. Buyers should pair national data with current local listings, recent comparable sales and a payment range verified through mortgage pre-approval.
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